Beyond the Bifurcation Point. Who Will Become the Subject of the Future?

A central insight of self-organization theory is that the future is not singular or predetermined. In nonlinear dynamics, complex systems may be said to “choose” among alternative futures at bifurcation points—moments when an existing trajectory loses stability and new paths of development become possible. Religious and philosophical traditions have long offered their own visions of humanity’s future; today, science is playing an increasingly prominent role in this debate. Its role is twofold. On the one hand, science describes and interprets the present state of the world. On the other, it can help humanity overcome obstacles to future development, provided that those obstacles are properly recognized and understood. From this perspective, the article considers the long-term prospects of humankind. Humanity now appears to face a fundamental choice between outward-oriented and inward-oriented models of development. At the same time, it has encountered a major barrier on its path into the future. Whether this barrier can be overcome—and, if so, when and by what means—is therefore a question of exceptional importance. Merely engaging with these issues has far-reaching implications for our worldview, as well as for strategic planning and for our understanding of the future development of society, the individual, and scientific knowledge. In recent years, a substantial body of research has emerged on the systemic analysis of global catastrophes. Yet the question of how humanity chooses among alternative futures—the central concern of this article—may be even more consequential. History also reveals the deceptive nature of bifurcation points. As we approach them, we can foresee only in the broadest terms whether the new reality into which we are moving will prove desirable or destructive, what price will have to be paid for the choices made, and which factors will ultimately become decisive. Because ours is a technological civilization, it is often equally difficult to anticipate what technical means will be available for addressing emerging challenges. The development and application of artificial intelligence and genome-editing technologies provide especially revealing examples. Before a bifurcation point is reached, it is essential to identify the questions whose answers will matter most in the reality that follows. This article is devoted to precisely those questions. Experienced teachers often note that grappling with difficult problems is valuable for students even when they are unable to arrive at a solution.

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